1. Food Gathering Mainly migrations
--------------
2. Agriculture Migrations, War Bands
----------- Some land trade
3. Simple Technology -"- increasing + sea
-----------------
4. City State -"- & organised war A few tourists
----------
5. Empire (Roman) Migrations curbed Significant
-------------- from outside Empire tourists &
Large movements with religious travel
Army & Trade
-------------------------------------------------------------------
6. Medieval (Europe) Restrictions on Travel
----------------- Conquests, some trade
7. Industrial Increased freedom A little personal
Revolution Migration to New World travel
---------- Growing trade by
land & sea
8. Consumer Society Significant
---------------- tourists
Migrations suppressed
9. Mass Production by nation states. A lot of tourism
Society Substantial trade but over increasing
--------------- less labour intensive. distances
More business travel
Personal Travel for tourism seen at significant wealth levels, and the
body of people who undertake it pass lower in society as wealth levels rise.
Likewise more people seen from
MRCs. Psychologists have a concept of people wishing to
move around - which is an addition to
Maslov's Needs. These are the basic
Constant Trends of Personal Travel.
Travel for Trade follows the Constant Trends of
Distribution.
Increase efficiency in Transport of Goods (larger loads with less
people employed transported in shorter time) probably means a fewer proportion
people engaged in Travel for trade - but there is more travel for other parts of
the business processes, such as for
MNC Management.
The Migration issue is a critical one. The natural state seems to be for human
tribes to move around in search for better lands or environments. When
more organised states occur the tribe holding the City and its surrounding
land start to restrict others coming on their patch, but keep it for their
own tribe. Some City States in Level 4 admitted migrates to their City, but
gave them Pleb status, reserving higher Patrician status for the founding
families - retaining effective control of much of the Government. This was
a key to Rome's greatness, for it swelled in size above most others, which
gave it manpower for its armies which were firmly controlled by the Patrician
Senate. Other City States might admit outsiders as Visitors only, who might
reside only as long as the City Government permitted. When however all the
Cities came under Rome's control, and it developed into the first
recognisable nation state in the modern concept:
While migrations into the Empire was curbed, the desire to migrate into
the Empire increased. Migrations continued in the territory between the
Empires of Rome & China - which had the effect of increasing the pressure
on the Pastoral Peoples bordering the Roman Empire to grow considerably.
These factors were a key element in the fall of the Roman Empire. The desire
of the Pastoral Peoples was to share in Rome's economic fortune, not conquer
it. But with Roman arms resisting their entry, but the Pastoral People's
military ability becoming stronger, increasingly they swept into Roman lands
- including Italy itself.
They formed a patch work quilt of territory in the Western Empire, of Vandals,
Goths, Visi-Goths, Huns, Franks (and Angles, Saxons & Jutes in Britain).
They attempted to govern the Roman world they took over (but not in Britain),
as a form of military elite, but
were not intellectually up to administering Roman Law (which they attempted),
nor up to running the very complex society they had moved into. The result
was it gradually decayed over several centuries - the Constant Trends went
into reverse, technologies decayed and went out, and the societies ended
up one or two Levels lower. (In Britain migrants mainly joined those already
there and took over the land, supplanting the Romano British, and the
collapse of Roman life and economy was much quicker).
The Constant Trend is likely to be that societies reaching a new
height of
Economic Level are likely to curb new immigration into them at some point. This
will not stop migrations, and the pressure of migrations will build up in
proportion to the State's success in curbing it. What happens depends on
the State's power to control its borders, and its peoples inside. For
eventually the migrants are likely to outnumber the original peoples who
produced the Economic Level and may displace them. The Roman state had a
very high ability to control its own people: slaves were never locked up
because if they or prisoners escaped they were always detected and returned -
even getting outside the Empire was no good - barbarians would send them
back for the reward. This was streaks ahead of the modern advanced nations,
where illegal migrants slip in across long land or sea frontiers, joining
communities of their own people to live undetected. This would never have
occurred in the Roman Empire, but their armies became too weak to prevent
incursions by Armed Tribes, and settlements by them.
The Post Industrial Societies may have the curious feature of very substantial
personal travel, but no legal migrations. Holidays to more remote
and exotic locations, a number of times a year - or increased frequency
during retirement can be expected. But each time one must return to your
designated territory - which may be small like the UK, or vast like the US,
depending on the accident of your birth. For even lower level societies
mimic the more advanced and control immigration. The tax exile, who has a
series of holidays one after the other, thereby being absent from his own
country for sufficient part of the year to evade the high tax there is
likely to increase.
Travel for business management is likely to grow. Some commentators argue that
other sorts of business travel may not: modern and future communications
can set up conferences for people without them actually physically being
together. However the Constant Trend of Personal Travel may well over rule
this. The prospect of another day in the office v going and see someone
again with the prospect of seeing something new is likely to result in him
zooming off. People of moderate seniority have control of their own time, on
whom the Constant Trend is likely to operate.
Migration
The migration issue is clearly building up the pressure. Vast numbers
of migrants are finding numerous ways to slip into the advanced countries,
and once in to slip away among their own ethnic types. Others appear
officially at the frontier post taking advantage the liberal offer of asylum
for people in distress - which is overwhelming the asylum systems. Once in,
they slip away and often cannot be found. All are motivated by the high
economic level of Level 10 Societies which they want to share.
These pressures are clearly building up. Will these pressures burst through
- into some form of warfare? Periods of curbed migrations have not lasted
indefinitely in history. The modern Level 10 Societies are not nearly so
good at controlling their peoples as were the Romans - but are currently
much better at conventional military strength. But present migrations are
not currently of the form of armed and organised incursions (while the
conventional military strength is not fearing too well against the recent form
of Muslim terrorism).
The discussion under Constant Trends gives the key to the future. At current
rates of migration, the migrants will outnumber the original Level 10
people at some point (especially as their birth rates are much lower, see
Role of Women), and then displace them. To prevent
this, the existing Level 10 Societies need to learn to control their own
internal peoples like the Romans did - and like the Level 4 City States
require visitors to leave. There are arguments that they will not succeed.
Liberal laws to welcome legal migrants almost make it illegal to campaign
on these issues - even though the vast majority of original Level 10 people
do not want foreigners settling.
It may be inevitable that very successful economic societies attract
migrants from outside, who eventually take them over. The migrants may
not be capable of maintaining the economic Level of the society they have
taken over, and another Dark Age ensues - as occurred between Levels 5 & 6
(and at other periods not shown in the History - such as the River Valley
Civilisations of Levels 2 & 3). But Weak Signals to monitor are given in
the above paragraphs.
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PERSONAL TRAVEL - CONSTANT TRENDS
PERSONAL TRAVEL - IMPACTED SCENARIO