1. Food Gathering      Mainly migrations	
2. Agriculture	       Migrations, War Bands 	
   -----------	       Some land trade

3. Simple Technology   -"- increasing + sea
4. City State          -"- & organised war      A few tourists
5. Empire (Roman)      Migrations curbed        Significant 
   --------------      from outside Empire	   tourists & 
                       Large movements with     religious travel
                       Army & Trade

6. Medieval (Europe)   Restrictions on Travel
   -----------------   Conquests, some trade

7. Industrial          Increased freedom         A little personal
   Revolution          Migration to New World    travel
   ----------          Growing trade by
                       land & sea
8. Consumer Society                              Significant
   ----------------                              tourists
                       Migrations suppressed
9. Mass Production     by nation states.         A lot of tourism
   Society             Substantial trade but     over increasing
   ---------------     less labour intensive.    distances
                       More business travel



Personal Travel for tourism seen at significant wealth levels, and the body of people who undertake it pass lower in society as wealth levels rise. Likewise more people seen from MRCs. Psychologists have a concept of people wishing to move around - which is an addition to Maslov's Needs. These are the basic Constant Trends of Personal Travel.

Travel for Trade follows the Constant Trends of Distribution. Increase efficiency in Transport of Goods (larger loads with less people employed transported in shorter time) probably means a fewer proportion people engaged in Travel for trade - but there is more travel for other parts of the business processes, such as for MNC Management.

The Migration issue is a critical one. The natural state seems to be for human tribes to move around in search for better lands or environments. When more organised states occur the tribe holding the City and its surrounding land start to restrict others coming on their patch, but keep it for their own tribe. Some City States in Level 4 admitted migrates to their City, but gave them Pleb status, reserving higher Patrician status for the founding families - retaining effective control of much of the Government. This was a key to Rome's greatness, for it swelled in size above most others, which gave it manpower for its armies which were firmly controlled by the Patrician Senate. Other City States might admit outsiders as Visitors only, who might reside only as long as the City Government permitted. When however all the Cities came under Rome's control, and it developed into the first recognisable nation state in the modern concept:

While migrations into the Empire was curbed, the desire to migrate into the Empire increased. Migrations continued in the territory between the Empires of Rome & China - which had the effect of increasing the pressure on the Pastoral Peoples bordering the Roman Empire to grow considerably.

These factors were a key element in the fall of the Roman Empire. The desire of the Pastoral Peoples was to share in Rome's economic fortune, not conquer it. But with Roman arms resisting their entry, but the Pastoral People's military ability becoming stronger, increasingly they swept into Roman lands - including Italy itself.

They formed a patch work quilt of territory in the Western Empire, of Vandals, Goths, Visi-Goths, Huns, Franks (and Angles, Saxons & Jutes in Britain). They attempted to govern the Roman world they took over (but not in Britain), as a form of military elite, but were not intellectually up to administering Roman Law (which they attempted), nor up to running the very complex society they had moved into. The result was it gradually decayed over several centuries - the Constant Trends went into reverse, technologies decayed and went out, and the societies ended up one or two Levels lower. (In Britain migrants mainly joined those already there and took over the land, supplanting the Romano British, and the collapse of Roman life and economy was much quicker).

The Constant Trend is likely to be that societies reaching a new height of Economic Level are likely to curb new immigration into them at some point. This will not stop migrations, and the pressure of migrations will build up in proportion to the State's success in curbing it. What happens depends on the State's power to control its borders, and its peoples inside. For eventually the migrants are likely to outnumber the original peoples who produced the Economic Level and may displace them. The Roman state had a very high ability to control its own people: slaves were never locked up because if they or prisoners escaped they were always detected and returned - even getting outside the Empire was no good - barbarians would send them back for the reward. This was streaks ahead of the modern advanced nations, where illegal migrants slip in across long land or sea frontiers, joining communities of their own people to live undetected. This would never have occurred in the Roman Empire, but their armies became too weak to prevent incursions by Armed Tribes, and settlements by them.


The Post Industrial Societies may have the curious feature of very substantial personal travel, but no legal migrations. Holidays to more remote and exotic locations, a number of times a year - or increased frequency during retirement can be expected. But each time one must return to your designated territory - which may be small like the UK, or vast like the US, depending on the accident of your birth. For even lower level societies mimic the more advanced and control immigration. The tax exile, who has a series of holidays one after the other, thereby being absent from his own country for sufficient part of the year to evade the high tax there is likely to increase.

Travel for business management is likely to grow. Some commentators argue that other sorts of business travel may not: modern and future communications can set up conferences for people without them actually physically being together. However the Constant Trend of Personal Travel may well over rule this. The prospect of another day in the office v going and see someone again with the prospect of seeing something new is likely to result in him zooming off. People of moderate seniority have control of their own time, on whom the Constant Trend is likely to operate.


The migration issue is clearly building up the pressure. Vast numbers of migrants are finding numerous ways to slip into the advanced countries, and once in to slip away among their own ethnic types. Others appear officially at the frontier post taking advantage the liberal offer of asylum for people in distress - which is overwhelming the asylum systems. Once in, they slip away and often cannot be found. All are motivated by the high economic level of Level 10 Societies which they want to share.

These pressures are clearly building up. Will these pressures burst through - into some form of warfare? Periods of curbed migrations have not lasted indefinitely in history. The modern Level 10 Societies are not nearly so good at controlling their peoples as were the Romans - but are currently much better at conventional military strength. But present migrations are not currently of the form of armed and organised incursions (while the conventional military strength is not fearing too well against the recent form of Muslim terrorism).

The discussion under Constant Trends gives the key to the future. At current rates of migration, the migrants will outnumber the original Level 10 people at some point (especially as their birth rates are much lower, see Role of Women), and then displace them. To prevent this, the existing Level 10 Societies need to learn to control their own internal peoples like the Romans did - and like the Level 4 City States require visitors to leave. There are arguments that they will not succeed. Liberal laws to welcome legal migrants almost make it illegal to campaign on these issues - even though the vast majority of original Level 10 people do not want foreigners settling.

It may be inevitable that very successful economic societies attract migrants from outside, who eventually take them over. The migrants may not be capable of maintaining the economic Level of the society they have taken over, and another Dark Age ensues - as occurred between Levels 5 & 6 (and at other periods not shown in the History - such as the River Valley Civilisations of Levels 2 & 3). But Weak Signals to monitor are given in the above paragraphs.

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