Subject: Plagues - lessons of WW1 not learnt in 2020
20 December 2020
This Sector was created during the Plague of 'flue of 2020.
Extensive Historical Analysis shows that humans have a facility to quite quickly learn how to deal with an invading organism causing illness - which results in devastating Plagues quite quickly disappearing completely. It follows that the cause of rapid rise in Plagues is that most people (often in a particular locality) have poor defences to the new organism. It follows that after contact with the organism the survivors have defences - and the organism cannot thereafter survive.
The question then becomes what sort of contact with the organism is best for your body to learn to build defences, but not to be killed by it. This should be the role of the medical profession - but in fact they have made no attempt to do this in the current Plague. Instead they have done what the rich and powerful have done throughout history - run away from the Plague. As the bulk of the people cannot all run away - the solution they advised was to confine people to their own homes.
Unfortunately it had already been learnt that confined spaces are the most dangerous places of all - during WW1 when a similar 'flue Plague engulfed the warring nations - and they made it all Top Secret. However the armies of this period contained doctors as Commissioned Officers - who made extensive records. These were studied over the period 1920 - 1980s, and the results are available in readable form in most Public Libraries - but do not appear to be taught to students - or as advice available to various civil Governments in the 2019 Plague.
The gist is that troops did not catch the 'flue in the trenches, but in the confined spaces of barracks when they were brought out of the trenches for rest, and medical treatment for conditions such as lice. The 'flue virus attacks the inner skin of your nose and throat, causing these cells to reproduce the virus, which are breathed out - when most blow away in the wind in the trenches. In barracks they are breathed back in again by everyone else - and layered on all surfaces.
The resulting Scenario explores how the contact with the organism can be made safest to enable people to learn defences but not so extensive as to kill them. The relation to the way the 'flue virus works points to being outside or out of doors, and the advice needed to be given to people how make the dangerous confined spaces of their homes safer when they have to be in it - especially by ventilation. Indoor - Outdoor Scenarios are developed for various key places: homes, care-homes, offices, work places, schools, sports, hospitality...
Cold viruses need damp conditions to survive, while 'flue viruses need dry conditions. Both virus types generally give similar symptoms (often simply called colds) except in serious cases. Several logic modules applied to the data find that a building environment can only support the survival of one virus type - not both at once. As central heating is increased it eventually supports 'flue virus survival - central heating temperatures have been rising in Advanced Societies. While each building has its own characteristics, such temperatures in the 70 degrees F may be the cause of the large US death rates. Conversely lower economic level China is more likely to have central heating supporting cold virus survival, or neither virus survival, and is the reason China has not shown a second 'flue wave in 2021.
However recent findings indicate more data is need to deal with this dangerous region - for 'flue gets less infective as temperature rises - with a cut off at 30 degrees C (86 degrees F) with infection being nil above. Its unlikely that central heating temperatures will get this high (which generally require air conditioning to cool them down). It is not clear if the loss of infection by temperatures rising through the 70s degrees F is off set by the increase in infection by lower humidity. Indeed some of the recent experiments use absolute humidity (the measure of water vapour in the air regardless of temperature). It is not clear how 'flue reacts to these two measures (J Brown, Influenza Atria, New York & London 2018).
Apart from ordering people into their homes, the Civil Powers have ordered many
businesses (especially if regarded as Unnecessary) to stop trading as Plague
spreaders. The economic damage has been immense - many businesses bankrupted.
Many Civil Powers have helped pay wages of such businesses, and provided them with
loans (largely for the Tribute extractors). These leads to two consequences:
(1) it is not satisfactory to load a business up with loans when ordered not to trade
(2) these assistances vastly increase the government expenditures over their incomes.
Impacts from Government Funding Problems recognised after the Credit Crunch that there were dangers of Country failures which are too big to bail out. Now these dangers may be a threat to our Civilisation.
As 2022 advanced the results of the various Governments' over expenditure showed inflation rising to over 12% - no one knows how high it will go - though some learned pronouncements take it into the teens. Unions have been quick to cause stoppages in a variety of industries. The same learned pronouncements point out this will just cause leapfrogging inflation. Shortages have become widespread. Classic was the failure to test new lorry drivers during the Plague - giving a 2 year shortage disrupting all logistics. Many others are seen from similar causes and Governments shutting down businesses. With Governments falling for the Climate Change activists with dict-tats on the end of fossil fuel use, the new oil exploration people have given up - and we now have an oil and energy shortage - and prices going through the roof.
The Russian Government goes on a conquest of Ukraine produces an action replay of the 1930s enlarging all these problems. Ukraine is a large food exporter, and fears mount of a food shortage for LDCs & UDCs - and rising world prices generally.
Scenarios consider Nation State Governments as being a threat to the Business Environment, and Scenarios consider how Businesses especially Multi National Corporations (MNCs) may react to these threats. There is a need for MNCs to form sound trading currencies in which they can properly measure their profits - especially to confront the Tribute Extractors - and also how to trade with eachother, and store their spare resources. Again, since the 1930s Nation State money has become detached from Nation State valuable metal coinage, and has become prone to high inflation. Measures to accurately measure profits can be created - but its difficult to see how a stable value money system can be created - though some attempts have been started. This is a pressing problem, and Scenarios of what MNCs may do for the inadequacies of Nation State currencies, and justify their accounting for real losses they incur from using such inadequate currencies is explored.
'Plagues, Scenarios from the Business Trends Library', www.BusinessTrendsLibrary.co.uk, Email: Email