Subject: Plagues - lessons of WW1 not learnt in 2020
20 December 2020


This Sector was created during the Plague of 'flue of 2020.

Extensive Historical Analysis shows that humans have a facility to quite quickly learn how to deal with an invading organism causing illness - which results in devastating Plagues quite quickly disappearing completely. It follows that the cause of rapid rise in Plagues is that most people (often in a particular locality) have poor defences to the new organism. It follows that after contact with the organism the survivors have defences - and the organism cannot thereafter survive.

The question then becomes what sort of contact with the organism is best for your body to learn to build defences, but not to be killed by it. This should be the role of the medical profession - but in fact they have made no attempt to do this in the current Plague. Instead they have done what the rich and powerful have done throughout history - run away from the Plague. As the bulk of the people cannot all run away - the solution they advised was to confine people to their own homes.

Unfortunately it had already been learnt that confined spaces are the most dangerous places of all - during WW1 when a similar 'flue Plague engulfed the warring nations - and they made it all Top Secret. However the armies of this period contained doctors as Commissioned Officers - who made extensive records. These were studied over the period 1920 - 1980s, and the results are available in readable form in most Public Libraries - but do not appear to be taught to students - or as advice available to various civil Governments in the 2019 Plague.

The gist is that troops did not catch the 'flue in the trenches, but in the confined spaces of barracks when they were brought out of the trenches for rest, and medical treatment for conditions such as lice. The 'flue virus attacks the inner skin of your nose and throat, causing these cells to reproduce the virus, which are breathed out - when most blow away in the wind in the trenches. In barracks they are breathed back in again by everyone else - and layered on all surfaces.

The resulting Scenario explores how the contact with the organism can be made safest to enable people to learn defences but not so extensive as to kill them. The relation to the way the 'flue virus works points to being outside or out of doors, and the advice needed to be given to people how make the dangerous confined spaces of their homes safer when they have to be in it - especially by ventilation. Indoor - Outdoor Scenarios are developed for various key places: homes, care-homes, offices, work places, schools, sports, hospitality...

Cold viruses need damp conditions to survive, while 'flue viruses need dry conditions. Both virus types generally give similar symptoms (often simply called colds) except in serious cases. Several logic modules applied to the data find that a building environment can only support the survival of one virus type - not both at once. As central heating is increased it eventually supports 'flue virus survival - central heating temperatures have been rising in Advanced Societies. While each building has its own characteristics, such temperatures in the 70 degrees F may be the cause of the large US death rates. Conversely lower economic level China is more likely to have central heating supporting cold virus survival, or neither virus survival, and is the reason China has not shown a second 'flue wave in 2021.


Apart from ordering people into their homes, the Civil Powers have ordered many businesses (especially if regarded as Unnecessary) to stop trading as Plague spreaders. The economic damage has been immense - many businesses bankrupted. Many Civil Powers have helped pay wages of such businesses, and provided them with loans (largely for the Tribute extractors). These leads to two consequences:
(1) it is not satisfactory to load a business up with loans when ordered not to trade
(2) these assistances vastly increase the government expenditures over their incomes.

Impacts from Government Funding Problems recognised after the Credit Crunch that there were dangers of Country failures which are too big to bail out. Now these dangers may be a threat to our Civilisation. 'Plagues, Scenarios from the Business Trends Library',, Email: Email

Return to BTL Briefings