STAGES OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
Simple tribal existence gathering or hunting food from the locality. May
be nomadic. Subsistence economy.
Settled existence cultivating plants, or herding animals - may produce
3. Simple Technology
Invention of technologies and beginnings of specialisation and trade in
4. City State
Growth of technology and concentration in fortified sites which became
centres of trade. Increase in specialisation, creation of wealth.
5. Empire (Roman)
Amalgamation of cities through conquest and treaty. Large area of
order encourages trade, commerce, and specialisation to grow to new
6. Medieval (Europe)
Generally conditions ranging from 3 and 4. As Europe emerged from feudalism,
trade grows with an affluent merchant class, and beginning a development of
4 into 5.
7. Industrial Revolution - 1760
Invention of mechanical power, and movement of people out of agriculture
8. Consumer Society - 1870
Gradual rise in spending power of ordinary people, continuing
movement of people to urban centres; a minority now engaged in
9. Mass Production Society - 1914
Mass production methods develop to meet mass markets. Middle
class and skilled working class are the powerful market forces.
Very high levels of specialisation, economies of scale.
10. Post Industrial Society - 1980
Forecasts suggest it will be the age of automation, communications
and service sectors. North America and parts of NW Europe .
These headings will be used to historically analyse all the Sectors
considered in a Major Business Area, or for an assignment put together for a client.
Most of these societies are still present on the
Earth, as well as obtaining information from anthropology, archaeology
The value of considering early societies is that it helps identify
the important threads. Our own society is so complex that it is often
difficult to know where to start.
In this document we simply give the future scenario for each Sector,
with trends from other Sectors and Major Business Areas impacted
into it. Only where the impacting process is especially important
do we devote discussion to it. In most cases it is usually self-
Further information on the construction of
the Business Trends Library is available in Long Range Planning
17 83-90 August 1984, and in Futures 16 269-76
Each Sector comprises the Historical
Analysis for that Sector, the identification of the Constant Trends for
it, and the future Scenario for the Sector - including the impacts
from elsewhere in the Business Trends Library.
DEVELOPMENT OF TRENDS INTO THE FURTURE is an
overview of the emerging future society,
together with summaries of the Scenarios for each Sector. This
enables a broad perspective of the future environment to be given in a
reasonably short space.