STAGES OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

1.Food Gathering
Simple tribal existence gathering or hunting food from the locality. May be nomadic. Subsistence economy.

2. Agriculture
Settled existence cultivating plants, or herding animals - may produce a surplus.

3. Simple Technology
Invention of technologies and beginnings of specialisation and trade in surplus commodities

4. City State
Growth of technology and concentration in fortified sites which became centres of trade. Increase in specialisation, creation of wealth.

5. Empire (Roman)
Amalgamation of cities through conquest and treaty. Large area of order encourages trade, commerce, and specialisation to grow to new heights.


6. Medieval (Europe)
Generally conditions ranging from 3 and 4. As Europe emerged from feudalism, trade grows with an affluent merchant class, and beginning a development of 4 into 5.

7. Industrial Revolution - 1760
Invention of mechanical power, and movement of people out of agriculture into manufacturing.

8. Consumer Society - 1870
Gradual rise in spending power of ordinary people, continuing movement of people to urban centres; a minority now engaged in agriculture.

9. Mass Production Society - 1914
Mass production methods develop to meet mass markets. Middle class and skilled working class are the powerful market forces. Very high levels of specialisation, economies of scale.

10. Post Industrial Society - 1980
Forecasts suggest it will be the age of automation, communications and service sectors. North America and parts of NW Europe .


These headings will be used to historically analyse all the Sectors considered in a Major Business Area, or for an assignment put together for a client. Most of these societies are still present on the Earth, as well as obtaining information from anthropology, archaeology and history.

The value of considering early societies is that it helps identify the important threads. Our own society is so complex that it is often difficult to know where to start.

In this document we simply give the future scenario for each Sector, with trends from other Sectors and Major Business Areas impacted into it. Only where the impacting process is especially important do we devote discussion to it. In most cases it is usually self- evident.

Further information on the construction of the Business Trends Library is available in Long Range Planning 17 83-90 August 1984, and in Futures 16 269-76 June 1985.

Each Sector comprises the Historical Analysis for that Sector, the identification of the Constant Trends for it, and the future Scenario for the Sector - including the impacts from elsewhere in the Business Trends Library.

DEVELOPMENT OF TRENDS INTO THE FURTURE is an overview of the emerging future society, together with summaries of the Scenarios for each Sector. This enables a broad perspective of the future environment to be given in a reasonably short space.