INTRODUCTION & METHODS

The Business Trends Library is constructed by breaking down each Major Business Area into its constituent Sectors. The development of each Sector is traced. The objective is to identify the trend or trends which have operated

• and to express each trend in such a way that the trend itself is broadly constant with economic development (which may involve it operating under certain conditions, rather than all the time)
• while such trends cause change, the trends themselves can be expressed as Constant Trends.

One is then in a position to consider how the past trend or trends will roll over into the future period, and

• to consider how the trends from various Sectors of the Major Business Area impact on each other. This is often the most important part of the process
• there are generally impacts from trends in other Major Business Areas of the Business Trends Library. The most important trends of our time tend to arise in this way - often with contributions from a number of Major Business Areas. Hypertext links take you to these other parts of the Library if you wish to explore the impacts further
• one then searches for evidence that the resulting Impacted Trends are in fact occurring in the real world. This often puts contemporary events in a different light, as well as adding detail to the trends. Naturally their progress with time is monitored.

In putting Scenarios together for a client from the Business Trends Library, Sectors are selected which are relevant to the client. Attempts are made to select Sectors so the document forms a coherent whole. But in some case trends may have to be quoted from other Major Business Areas which are not specifically covered. More information can be supplied where the client feels this is necessary, and hypertext links may take you to these parts of the Library.

The starting point is the stages of economic development shown in the following Table. This is divided into two parts, representing the fact that development has not been continuous - there have always been regressive periods. The second part picks up the development into our own time.

Stages of Economic Development