None
Fortified sites mainly of earth, Chief's dwelling. Dry stone walling
Temples & Chiefs' tombs - mud brick
Large temples of worked stone and mortar, simple structures built with great accuracy and ornament. Large fortified walled cities and public buildings - courts, markets, government.
Development of the Arch - more variety. Extensive fortifications, long walls, forts, aqueducts. Modest towns have extensive public buildings, combinations of columns & arches, enclosing large spaces - assembly halls & justice, markets, temples, baths, circus, government. Mass produced pottery - roofing & building materials, heating. Glass windows.
Beginnings of large structures for manufacturing, especially potteries. Development of Arch into Dome - cathedrals. Concrete.
Rare case of technology which did not regress (due to Roman church taking
over much of government of Europe whence the technology was preserved
for church building).
England regressed to c Level 3, but advanced on becoming Christian.
Later vast cathedrals of columns, arches, domes. Substantial castles -
later softened into houses for the aristocracy
Need for industrial premises met by mass produced pottery, gradually increasing in size into mills and factories.
Wooden frames replaced by steel, wattle & daub by brick - greater heights and floors possible - reduction in masonry - very large structures, simple to construct. Gas & electricity - heating & lighting, lifts - higher structures possible.
Pottery/mortar structures give way to concrete, moulded to shape required, steel re-enforced. Large structures almost all steel frame, re-enforced concrete.
1. Food Gathering 2. Agriculture 3. Simple Technology Fortified sites Fortified Dwelling Area ; Temples : Public Buildings : : Markets 4. Ciry State : : Theatres : : Circus 5. Roman Empire : : : Baths : : Fortifications : : : Factories : : : : : ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 6. Medieval (Europe) : Fortifications Castles Walled Theatres : Barns Towns : : : Cathedrals : Churches 7. Industrial Schools : : : Revolution Factories : : Warehouses : Large : : : Firms 8. Consumer Public Buildings & Society : : Department Stores : : Orgs : : : : Baths : : : : Hospitals Offices 9. Mass Production : : : : : Society : : HQs of : : Cinemas : : Divisions : : : Swimming pools: & Government : : : SBUs offices : : : : : : Super : : R & D : Markets : : : Labs : : :: : : :: : : :: : Sports Centres: ::
Large Structures can only be built when someone has access to very substantial economic resources. This means someone who is either a "Chief" or a member of a military group.
As economic level rises, Chiefs have access to more resources, and can therefore build more and bigger large structures - much of which do not have economic ends. More members of the ruling group come into this category, and the numbers of Chiefs and ruling elites increase, (from Government - as societies develop, the numbers of sub-groups increase, with their own ruling elites).
Thus the number of large structures increases, probably exceeding economic growth, and this is the Constant Trend.
Early structures are fortified and secure sites, often containing the dwelling of the Chief, later extended to more of the ruling group. Religion may be the ruling group, or associated - and Temples are a fairly early development, followed by buildings of more general use and entertainment of the people. Purely functional large structures for industry and commerce follow last at higher levels of development.
In our own society we have also seen the growth of sub groups, especially the large business firm - who are largely autonomous - who increasingly acquire resources to build large structures needed for production, and to house the work of progressively large numbers of their ruling groups - and increasingly the ruling groups of their constituent parts (Divisions, SBUs). Thus we have the rise of the office block.
There has been a growth of other sub groups in addition to firms. By the
time they reach large building stage they tend to look like quasi
business (Motoring and other Clubs, Building Societies, Professional Societies),
or are politico-religious in character (early schools developing into universities).
The Constant Trend is likely to continue to operate, though probably at a
a lower level. We can expect some changes in the various components however.
Governments have historically been at the forefront of large building construction.
This has or will change. Government financing problems throughout the advanced world
(from Government and
Leisure & Surplus Wealth)
is likely to curtail this. There was a plethora of municipal developments
such as public recreational facilities in the 1970s in the UK - these are
unlikely to be extended. Growth of government staff is likely to be checked -
and with it the need for office blocks. Up grading of accommodation is likely
to be slow.
The main demand for large structures is likely to come from business firms.
But here there will be pluses and minuses, from impacts from other areas:
1, 2, & 3 will this have the effect of putting demand on the construction
industry to renew industrial premises, even though there may not
be much net increase in the numbers of large structures.
There are groups of impacts from trends towards the underground economy,
to services and small business. These all have the effect of people migrating
out of large company employment, and with it one might expect a flow of people
from working in large structures to smaller ones. The net effect is however a bit
more difficult to judge. The underground economy and the very small
business often requires people working from home with some family members
helping though they have regular employment. But even the smaller business
often requires specialist accommodation. In the past the smaller business eg solicitors,
accountants, shops) have tended to use old dwellings in the town centres. Possibly this
may continue to be the pattern - or the supply may become inadequate (especially
where the planning laws prevent the use of dwellings for business). Then one
can expect office blocks which are let off in small units - probably providing
communal office facilities (these have proved popular where they have been tried
in the UK, and are more common in the US).
An increase in crime and protest groups may turn more HQs of firms
and prodiction sites into secure (or fortified) sites - both physically and informationally
(already occurring).
It is possible to visualise the HQ of a large firm as a Mycenaean citadel
- and it is possible that some of the subsequent development of the
City States will be mirrored - in them providing more services and
entertainment for their members. Evidence of this can be seen in the
work-place provision of sports facilities, social facilities and shops -
and this trend may continue.
As mentioned in the Constant Trends, non-business sub groups will create large structures.
In addition to educational establishment, large charities are featuring. As in the past when
groups reach this stage they will probably look like quasi businesses - providing information
and services concerned with their specialize.
In technology, we should expect to see a continuation of the trend towards
factory made moulded components, for erection on site. Increasingly such components
will be made with a view to their insulating properties, or insulating materials
will be incorporated in them. Control of heat and ventilation will follow
that described in
Dwellings.
- but may be implemented earlier in large buildings.
Large structures will tend to get higher, but may also go down deeper into
the ground - especially in congested areas or where a process would benefit
from a below ground environment.
Overseas
New World Trading Patterns will not operate for this Sector - construction
has to take place at the site of the building. Although there could be scope
for export and import of building components, their weight relative to
their value has tended to limit this - but there will probably be a
growth in trade of lighter plastic components.
The same trends will operate for all developing countries, as outlined in the History,
giving a growth of large structures, as well as dwellings. For dwellings, the technology
of construction is low - so Post Industrial concerns will have less to offer - unless large estates
or large blocks are planned. For large structures the technology is higher, and there
will be demand for their advanced techniques, as they are finding. This should continue.
Where a Construction concerns is successful it may form a permanent presence in some
developing countries, and take on some of the form of
Multi-Nations Corporations.
Unfortunately disruption to this development may occur from re-occurring
Banking Crises.
These leave Construction concerns much weakened, as the funding of large construction
projects is heavily tied to health of the Banks worldwide.
The current Credit Crunch will eventually work itself out, as the problem US Securities are secured on
US homes, where the Sub-Prime element will eventually be eliminated - but the Banks' recovery
may take longer than previous Banking Crises. Unfortunately another Banking Crisis can be
expected to surface from a wholly unforecastable source. The Construction Industry
will then be affected yet again.
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LARGE STRUCTURES - IMPACTED SCENARIO